A Chance to Make Good: African Americans 1900-1929: 7 (The Young Oxford History of African Americans)

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Life expectancy is well-known to be affected by mortality levels at young ages, because child deaths result in more years of life lost. Nonetheless, the racial changes we see in life expectancy at birth are mirrored by life expectancy at age 15 cf. Table 2, in Appendix I. The mortality changes we are studying are not concentrated in childhood. To briefly summarize the results, life expectancy improved during the Great Depression in the USA—more for females than males, and much more for nonwhites than whites.

For nonwhites, both sexes escaped a Lee-Carter projection interval based on —, and nonwhite females saw the most notable increases. Nothing in the balanced panel analyses Appendix III indicates that these findings are an artifact of the changing composition of the death registration area. At lower levels of life expectancy, a fixed percentage improvement in death rates makes a larger change in life expectancy Karpinos , ; Mitra , ; Pollard , ; Keyfitz , , pp. Thus, in the present context, assuming the same proportional changes in death rates, we expect a slightly bigger response in life expectancy for nonwhites.

However, the Lee-Carter analysis clearly shows that changes in nonwhite mortality were more profound. The quality of mortality data for whites and nonwhites should not be assumed to be the same. Up to ten percent of deaths could be unregistered, and these could have been disproportionately nonwhite. Population denominators come from the census, for which nonwhite data quality was worse than that for whites Karpinos ; Myers ; Price Although both nonwhite deaths and population were under-ascertained, it is unlikely that census undercounts mirrored death underregistration on an age-, sex-, and race-specific basis.

Numerator-denominator mismatch can bias nonwhite death rates downward. Despite the stark differences in white and nonwhite life expectancies, in reality the gap may have been even larger Elo A related problem is age misreporting, thought to be greater among nonwhites. Complete birth registration, key in establishing age, came later than complete death registration, especially in poor southern counties where most nonwhites were born in the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries Preston et al.

This distorts age-specific death rates; in any event, data quality for nonwhites was poorer in this time period Demeny and Gingrich ; Zelnik ; Ewbank and beyond Elo and Preston ; Preston et al. The life expectancy calculations require, as input, death rates at all ages, so the new series of infant mortality data Eriksson et al.

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These data quality issues do not make our results uninterpretable. Our goal is to look at life expectancy differences over time, not to hang our hat on any particular point estimate. Many of the measurement issues with nonwhite life expectancy are constant over short time intervals and therefore do not affect inference about the Great Depression. Clearly, growth in life expectancy for nonwhites was greater than that for whites Fig.

The data we analyze are aggregate vital statistics, fit for the purpose of identifying trends, but less suited to testing hypotheses about mechanisms. The Great Depression overlapped with what is called the Great Migration, or the movement of blacks out of the South both rural and urban and into the more industrialized North Eldridge and Thomas , ; Fligstein , ; Alexander , This may have played a role in the racial differences in mortality change that we observe. Eriksson and Niemesh argue that black infant mortality was higher among births to migrants to the North. While the Great Migration is a potential explanation, annual data on internal migration flows by race are lacking U.

Bureau of the Census , ; Fishback et al.

Our results permit hypothesis formation that the Great Migration may have played a role in the mortality changes we observe, but we do not have the data to test this hypothesis. Footnote 4 We encourage other scholars to consider it. Footnote 5. Direct assistance programs may also play a role in the observed trends.

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Fishback et al. However, note that the New Deal programs—which probably reduced infant mortality Fishback et al. This is consistent with the gains seen in nonwhite life expectancy after Fig. General improvements in public health programs during this period were either explicitly part of the New Deal and hence began in or were not limited to — Duffy , , pp. The first group of modern antibiotics did not come into use until Lesch , ; Jayachandran et al.

In any case, it would be peculiar if a medical-technological innovation favored nonwhites Link and Phelan , This is interesting in and of itself, especially since it may be regarded as counterintuitive. For the population as a whole, the rise in life expectancy in — does not exceed a Lee-Carter projection interval constructed from pre data, as described. Thus, although it is a prosaic explanation, continuation of secular trend a juggernaut underway before the Great Depression may well explain the pattern of life expectancy in the early s.

This is congruent with Stuckler et al.

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Our principal finding is that race-specific analyses reveal a divergence in life expectancy after Nonwhite Americans overwhelmingly blacks during this period show a sharp rise in life expectancy in — that exceeds the projection interval; this holds for both sexes. Strengths of our approach include use of the widely accepted Lee-Carter method to compute a projection interval for life expectancy.

Given the constraint of only 30 data points before the Great Depression viz.


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An additional strength of our approach is that we include a balanced panel, the death registration states of Although the balanced panel results do not affect the overall conclusions, this is only knowable ex-post. We also analyzed nonwhites and whites separately, which allowed us to show distinct differences in life expectancy patterns during and after the Great Depression.

This study has a number of limitations. Our principal finding refers to nonwhites, but, as discussed, this is the group for which data quality is poorest. Since we are more interested in trends than levels, we think our findings are robust, but clearly better data quality is always a desideratum. Choosing the best input data i.

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Footnote 6. Mortality data for the USA are available since , and it is thus not possible to study trends in life expectancy over a longer period of time before the Great Depression. Compositional changes in the death registration area add to the input data challenges; using the balanced panel corrects for this, but at the cost of having ten fewer input observations. However, the balanced panel Appendix III is of states—not of people—and these states were on the receiving end of the Great Migration.

There is increasing evidence that mortality and the economy are procyclical. When the economy declines, so do death rates Edwards , ; Ruhm , Footnote 7 Great Depression findings Fishback et al. Heart disease was a more important cause of death in the s than either during the Great Depression or nowadays Goldman and Cook , ; Tate et al. Thus, the decline in the relative importance of heart disease mortality may explain some of the divergence between older and more recent work on this cyclicality.

This could be one of the reasons both the Great Depression era and recent times are procyclical, while mid-century evidence is more elusive. Replicating our projection-based analysis with a portfolio of cause-specific projections is not an alternative Wilmoth , A possible explanation for our findings is a temporary abatement of the Great Migration. Whether or not the nexus between our findings and the Great Migration is causal or coincidental, our findings are principally descriptive demography.

This study uses vital statistics i. Nonetheless, this is a useful addition to knowledge about mortality in the Great Depression because of how our findings highlight nonwhite mortality changes, as well how they show that the changes for the total population are hard to distinguish from the prior trend. Our study refines prior work by using uncertainty intervals specifically, a Lee-Carter projection interval based on — and by focusing on race. Prior studies have noted that life expectancy expanded during the Great Depression, but the present work underscores that racial differences are key, and that for whites the changes, while positive, were not remarkable.

Our principal finding agrees with the idea that the Great Depression was pivotal for life expectancy, but highlights that this is much clearer for nonwhites.

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We urge scholars working on health and mortality during — to stratify their analyses by race wherever the data permit it. This appendix presents an overview of the input data: three tables of descriptive statistics, followed by graphs. Appendix I : Table 2 summarizes empirical changes in e 0 and e 15 from and , demonstrating that the racial differences are not concentrated in childhood. Mortality rates by age, —, all races.

Solid lines are for the death registration area — and USA — ; dotted lines are for the death registration states of — Darker shading denotes input data to Lee-Carter model up to , but note that is excluded from the input data. Mortality rates by age, —, whites.

Tables 3 and 4 summarize the input data for the Lee-Carter model — for the main data and — for the balanced panel, excluding in both cases.